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Will the Rockets match Carl Landry?
As you’ve no doubt heard, the Charlotte Bobcats have a signed offer sheet from Carl Landry. With Landry being a restricted free agent, the Rockets have 7 days to decide whether or not to match the offer of 3 years at $3 million a year (last year being a club option). Here’s what the Bobcat’s general manager, Rod Higgins, had to say:
“Landry is an emerging NBA talent, as evidenced by his play over the final 42 regular-season games and into the Rockets first-round playoff appearance,” Higgins said. “His ability to play both the power forward and center position will complement our post play.”
So now the question is - Will the Rockets match the offer? Let’s break it down.
Salary
Everyone that knows me, knows that I love me some Carl Landry. What’s not to like? He delivers big explosive dunks inside, and has shown a tenacious streak on the court (think Utah). I’m sure this offer would have been a lot bigger if he had not gotten hurt last season. Before his injury, the buzz was a full MLE. After sustaining another knee injury, and not looking like the same monster that he was in February, Landry lost millions of dollars. Looking at the other power forward salaries around the NBA for the 08/09 season there are a few interesting things that stand out.
Luis Scola $3,150,000 - Seems like a great deal to me. Basically handed to the Rockets by the Spurs, Scola is very important to this team, and as much as Landry is to watch, Scola does deserve to make more.
Eduardo Najera $3,250,000 - As an 8 year veteran, Najera averaged 5.9 points and 4.3 rebounds while playing 21.3 minutes a game. Compare that to Landry’s 8.1 points and 4.9 rebounds in only 16.9 minutes a game, and once again Landry starts to look like a great deal. To top if off, does anyone really think that Najera has as much upside and potential as Landry? Don’t think so.
Fabricio Oberto $3,500,000 - While Oberto has some height on Landry, his game averages 4.8 points and 5.1 rebounds in 20.1 minutes still shine a good light on Landry’s productivity. The Spurs do rely on Oberto to body up on some bigger guys, which could be a problem for Landry being a bit smaller.
Needs
I have no doubt in my mind that wherever Landry plays, he will be outperforming guys like Andres Nocioni ($8,000,000) and Stromile Swift ($6,200,000). Carl is obviously a value at $3,000,000, so I think the real questions lie around the team’s needs and the luxury tax. As of right now, the Rockets are up against the wall for the luxury tax, and they still haven’t signed Joey Dorsey and Dikembe Mutombo. One of the ideas floating around is that with Scola and Chuck Hayes at power forward already, adding Dorsey will be enough at forward. He is larger and stronger than Landry, and can play center much like Scola did for many stretches last season. Add Dikembe in for some depth at center and the Rockets may not need Landry. Having him would obviously be a great thing, but when they don’t have to have him to be successful, will Les Alexander give up millions of dollars by going over the luxury tax? That being said, Daryl Morey has shown an exceptional ability to not only evaluate talent, but to be able to make great financial moves throughout the year. The Rockets have started both of the last two seasons over the luxury tax, while ending both below it.
Fans
Carl Landry quickly became a hero around Houston in his rookie season. The national media eventually caught onto him being a human highlight reel, but that’s not what endured him to the fans the most. Standing up to Boozer and the Jazz, and seemingly single handedly defeating them during the streak made Landry an instant hero. The Rockets have a chance to keep a rookie that the fans love, and who has the potential to come off the bench to electrify the stadium for years to come. Not matching the offer may dissappoint a lot of people around Houston, but management may think that signing Ron Artest will generate enough publicity and good will in the community that it won’t matter.
My Verdict
Sign him. It’s a long season, and the Rockets will have ups and downs, but Landry’s ability to make the casual fans jump up off their couch when he posterizes Tim Duncan will be worth it. Trust in Morey’s ability to make the moves to get under the luxury tax, and add that much more depth behind the big three. The Rockets have to be considered contenders, and Landry’s explosiveness coming off the bench might be just what they need to get over the hump and really contend for the championship.
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